Guna Yala Climate Crisis: Rising Seas and Relocation

Why the Guna Yala archipelago is on the front line

The Guna Yala archipelago consists of roughly 365 low-lying coral islands in the Caribbean Sea, off the eastern part of Panama’s Caribbean coast. The islands are home to the Guna people, who have lived in the archipelago for roughly 200 years (the Guna moved to the islands from the Darién mainland in the early 19th century). The islands’ elevation is mostly under 2 m above sea level; the highest point on any Guna island is rarely above 5 m. The combination of low elevation, coral substrate, dense population, and exposure to storm-wave damage makes the archipelago exceptionally climate-vulnerable.

The most-prominent climate threats to the archipelago are:

1. Sea-level rise. The Caribbean-side mean sea level has been rising for decades. STRI’s Steve Paton is the principal climate scientist working on this trend for Panama; the documented rate is 1.5 mm/year in the 1960s, accelerating to 5.5 mm/year in recent observations^[1].
2. Storm-wave damage. Tropical-storm waves and storm surges cause episodic flooding of the lower-lying islands. Some islands experience tidal flooding even on calm days during the highest tides.
3. Saltwater intrusion. The freshwater lens beneath each island (the thin layer of fresh groundwater floating on the salt water below) is thinned by sea-level rise, reducing the island’s drinking-water supply.
4. Ecosystem shifts. Mangrove and reef degradation reduce the natural coastal protection that has historically absorbed wave energy and limited erosion.

The IPCC regional context

The IPCC’s AR6 Working Group II report, Chapter 15 (Central and South America), provides the regional climate-risk context for the Guna Yala case. Caribbean-region-wide figures relevant to the Guna Yala situation include:

• Approximately 22 million people in the Caribbean live below 6 m elevation^[2].
• 50 % of the Pacific-side population of Central and South America lives within 10 km of the coast^[2].
• The RCP8.5 worst-case scenario indicates 0.5 m of sea-level rise by mid-century (2046–2065) and 1 m by end-of-century (2081–2100)^[2].
• A 1 °C increase in temperature (from 1.7 °C to 2.7 °C) could result in a 60 % increase in the number of people projected to experience severe water resources stress from 2043 to 2071 across Caribbean SIDS^[2].
• The Caribbean SIDS region is projected to become a “predominantly drier region (5-15 % less rain than present day)” with “a greater occurrence of droughts”^[2].

These regional figures put Panama’s Caribbean-side climate trends in context: the Caribbean SIDS region as a whole faces the same combination of sea-level rise, freshwater stress, and increased storm activity that the Guna Yala archipelago experiences at the local scale. The Guna Yala case is a leading example of how these regional pressures translate into local-level adaptation and, where adaptation fails, displacement.

Sea-level rise in the Guna Yala region

The Caribbean-side sea-level rise rate has accelerated measurably. STRI atmospheric and ocean scientist Steve Paton has been the principal researcher documenting this trend; per his work (as reported in Mongabay’s 2025 reporting on Guna climate displacement), the rate has shifted from about 1.5 mm/year in the 1960s to about 5.5 mm/year in recent observations^[1]. The acceleration is consistent with regional IPCC projections and is part of the broader Caribbean-SIDS pattern.

For the Guna islands specifically, the practical consequences are visible in:

• Tidal flooding. Islands that were not flooded at high tide 30 years ago are now regularly flooded. Some islands experience multi-day flooding events during the highest tides of the year.
• Erosion. The edges of the islands are visibly retreating; some smaller islands have lost significant portions of their surface area in recent decades.
• Cemetery relocation. Some communities have had to relocate their cemeteries inland as the older burial sites have been flooded. This is a culturally significant indicator of the climate change pace.

The Gardi Sugdub relocation (June 2024)

The most concrete climate-driven relocation to date in Panama’s Guna Yala context is the June 2024 relocation of approximately 300 Guna families from the chronically-flooded island of Gardi Sugdub to the newly-built mainland community of Isberyala. The relocation is one of the first climate-driven relocations of an entire community in Panama’s modern history.

Key facts as of writing:

• The Panamanian government has reported an estimated US$12 million cost for the relocation and the new Isberyala community^[1]. This figure is preliminary and subject to revision as the project completes.
• The new community was built on the mainland adjacent to the original island, in the comarca of Guna Yala, with infrastructure including housing, a school, a health centre, and basic services. The community retains its connection to the original island territory and the traditional Guna governance structure.
• The relocation is part of a broader Panamanian Ministry of Environment programme that has identified 63 Guna communities nationwide as at-risk of sinking due to sea-level rise and storm-wave damage^[1].
• The Guna have traditionally been reluctant to relocate from their island homes, as the archipelago is central to Guna identity and cosmology, and the Gardi Sugdub relocation is therefore both a practical response and a culturally significant event.

The relocation has not been without controversy. Some Guna communities have raised concerns about the cultural and economic viability of mainland life compared to island life, where fishing, coconut cultivation, and tourism are central. The longer-term success of the Gardi Sugdub relocation will be an important precedent for the other 62 communities that are candidates for similar relocations in the coming years.

The 63 communities at risk

Panama’s Ministry of Environment has identified 63 Guna communities as at-risk of sinking due to sea-level rise and storm-wave damage^[1]. The list includes communities in both the Guna Yala comarca proper (the Caribbean-side archipelago) and the smaller Kuna de Madugandí and Kuna de Wargandí comarcas (which are mainland-based but include some riverside communities facing related risks).

The scale of the potential displacement is significant. The 63 communities range in size from a few dozen to several thousand residents; the total at-risk population is in the tens of thousands. The relocation programme will require sustained funding, careful coordination with the Guna General Congress, and attention to cultural preservation as well as physical safety.

Climate adaptation and cultural preservation

The Guna response to climate change is multi-faceted:

1. Relocation (as in Gardi Sugdub). The most drastic option, used only when adaptation is no longer viable.
2. Island hardening. Sea walls, mangrove restoration, and beach nourishment to extend the life of the existing islands. Several communities have implemented these measures with support from MiAmbiente and international donors.
3. Mola and cultural-heritage preservation. The mola tradition is one of the most-visible forms of Guna cultural expression and is a key element of cultural resilience. Mongabay 2025 reporting on the broader Indigenous-led conservation programme (PP11-067) notes that the Smithsonian’s Agua Salud research provides a 20-year scientific foundation for the reforestation work that supports Guna cultural sites. The cultural-heritage side is part of the climate-adaptation story: even if some islands have to be abandoned, the Guna cultural identity and traditions can be preserved through the mola tradition, the Guna language, and the comarca governance structure.
4. Indigenous-led reforestation. A 100-hectare native-tree planting project in the Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca (led by STRI in collaboration with traditional leaders) is one of the model programmes for Indigenous-led climate adaptation^[3]. The programme uses native species (guayacan, cocobolo, zapatero, nance, macano, Albizia) and provides 20-year carbon-sequestration payments to participating families. The 1973 government pine-plantation programme that preceded it failed economically (cost $1,500/ha with low profits)^[3]; the Indigenous-led model is designed to be sustainable and culturally appropriate.

International and policy context

The Guna Yala climate case is one of the most-cited examples in international climate-displacement discussions. The UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons has cited the Guna case as part of the broader climate-displacement framework. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cites the Caribbean SIDS, including the Guna Yala case, as a high-confidence climate-risk context for Indigenous coastal communities.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development both have explicit provisions for climate-displacement; Panama’s policy framework is gradually aligning with these international instruments, though the practical relocation programme is still in its early stages.

When to skip and when to read on

If you only have a minute, the load-bearing facts are: the Guna Yala archipelago is one of the most climate-vulnerable inhabited island groups in Central America; sea-level rise has accelerated from 1.5 mm/year in the 1960s to 5.5 mm/year in recent observations; Panama’s Ministry of Environment has identified 63 Guna communities as at-risk of sinking; the June 2024 Gardi Sugdub relocation of roughly 300 Guna families to the mainland community of Isberyala was the first climate-driven relocation of an entire Guna community. The guna-yala-culture page in the indigenous section covers the cultural context; the san-blas-islands page in this section covers the archipelago’s geography and the comarca; the mangrove-ecosystems page in the nature section covers the ecosystem context; and the environmental-challenges page in this section covers the broader climate and ecological pressures.

Quick reference

Last reviewed: 2026-07-03